Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +25 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -3.9 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -5.7 (-19.3) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.5 (-21.5) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -3.2 (-21.8) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -4.0 (-21.0) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UNLV 82 – 75 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UNLV 76 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 71 SJSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNLV 79 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNLV 68 – 50 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#267) | 2.0 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#175) | 0.29 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#185) | 0.71 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.510 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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