Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +8 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | KC -6.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -6.5 (-14.5) | 132.0 (-14.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.8 (-12.8) | 136.7 (-18.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -5.1 (-13.1) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -5.6 (-13.6) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#261) | -7.9 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | -1.81 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#180) | -2.42 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#198) | 0.401 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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