Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -11.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -8.2 (-16.2) | 143.1 (+20.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -8.1 (-16.1) | 144.2 (+19.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -8.9 (-16.9) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.2 (-16.2) | 144.2 (+19.8) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -6.3 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#111) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#119) | -0.85 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#120) | 0.460 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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