Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -1.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.5 (-6.5) | 153.2 (-18.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -0.5 (-7.5) | 153.1 (-18.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -0.1 (-7.1) | 153.0 (-18.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.2 (-6.8) | 153.2 (-18.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#251) | -2.0 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#271) | 0.26 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#273) | 0.15 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#262) | 0.513 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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