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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+22.1 | 146.1 | 91% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 142.5 | 58% | 57–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.2 | 156.9 | 85% | 69–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 161.1 | 57% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 129.7 | 36% | 74–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 139.9 | 76% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 143.3 | 68% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 141.5 | 69% | 55–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 132.5 | 47% | 65–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 125.6 | 54% | 76–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 139.4 | 87% | 52–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 130.4 | 57% | 58–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 142.2 | 36% | 69–55 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 146.1 | 30% | 72–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 143.1 | 72% | 65–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 143.6 | 41% | 102–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.9 | 149.1 | 89% | 52–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 144.9 | 85% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 154.5 | 58% | 86–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 133.4 | 79% | 72–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 127.6 | 88% | 44–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 154.0 | 60% | 64–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.7 | 152.0 | 86% | 67–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 151.5 | 87% | 66–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 131.8 | 83% | 66–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 143.8 | 68% | 60–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.1 | 140.4 | 89% | 77–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 140.6 | 86% | 49–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.1 | 152.3 | 88% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 125.9 | 36% | 74–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 141.5 | 88% | 71–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.4 | 150.5 | 17% | 67–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 132.5 | 33% | 78–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 139.4 | 60% | 62–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.5 | 150.1 | 88% | 50–96 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.