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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.1 | 135.7 | 49% | 53–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 137.6 | 50% | 63–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.9 | 147.4 | 85% | 103–99 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 139.1 | 47% | 72–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 139.7 | 86% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 137.0 | 64% | 75–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.5 | 150.7 | 90% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 142.6 | 82% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 67–94 | — |
|
|
+8.6 | 131.1 | 79% | 50–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 132.6 | 83% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 136.9 | 80% | 33–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.9 | 155.1 | 89% | 68–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 134.7 | 81% | 86–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 139.1 | 86% | 52–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 150.8 | 46% | 76–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 151.8 | 65% | 88–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 140.9 | 86% | 45–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 139.7 | 75% | 74–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 145.2 | 64% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.6 | 147.0 | 90% | 71–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.1 | 131.3 | 25% | 72–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.9 | 153.3 | 91% | 76–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 143.2 | 26% | 74–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 144.9 | 35% | 85–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 137.6 | 43% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 133.4 | 45% | 65–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 131.7 | 74% | 50–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 146.1 | 75% | 88–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+36.0 | 139.5 | 91% | 67–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 144.7 | 68% | 70–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.5 | 147.6 | 26% | 72–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+35.6 | 142.2 | 91% | 55–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 149.5 | 82% | 80–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 133.9 | 64% | 89–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 140.2 | 85% | 73–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 151.3 | 74% | 81–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.8 | 133.3 | 84% | 68–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+27.1 | 156.7 | 91% | 69–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 157.4 | 61% | 83–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.