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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.6
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State
@
Northwestern
|
+5.0 | 155.3 | 64% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
San Francisco
|
+4.0 | 143.9 | 66% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Minnesota
|
-3.2 | 151.8 | 37% | 82–90 | ✗ |
Washington
@
Colorado
|
+15.5 | 130.2 | 88% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Clemson
|
+25.1 | 126.2 | 90% | 51–66 | ✓ |
VMI
@
George Mason
|
+1.9 | 145.0 | 65% | 66–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
+1.7 | 143.3 | 57% | 78–59 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Texas A&M
|
+4.2 | 138.4 | 68% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Kansas State
|
+5.1 | 143.5 | 67% | 46–70 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Rice
|
+12.9 | 140.9 | 86% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Texas State
|
+11.8 | 131.4 | 87% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Massachusetts
|
+9.7 | 166.8 | 73% | 93–88 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Furman
|
+27.5 | 145.4 | 91% | 52–118 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
UMass Lowell
|
— | — | — | 65–73 | — |
Saint Joseph's
@
Tennessee
|
+27.5 | 146.2 | 91% | 66–102 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.