I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–11 on winners spread MAE 12.4 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northern Illinois @ Pittsburgh +16.6 144.6 93% 59–89 ✓
Oakland @ Oklahoma State +39.7 143.4 100% 71–84 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Saint Louis +37.7 151.8 100% 54–107 ✓
Rice @ Houston Christian -8.1 136.8 23% 86–64 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +17.0 138.0 94% 48–69 ✓
UNLV @ Kansas State +8.6 143.6 78% 68–58 ✗
BYU @ Utah State +4.6 142.3 66% 67–64 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina +25.3 147.8 99% 75–76 ✓
Villanova @ Texas +8.3 144.4 77% 68–64 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Tech +25.3 131.9 99% 40–81 ✓
Stanford @ North Carolina A&T +1.2 146.5 55% 78–46 ✗
New Hampshire @ Quinnipiac +5.7 142.5 70% 58–64 ✓
Cleveland State @ Ohio +15.7 143.2 92% 46–101 ✓
Coppin State @ Drexel +14.4 143.4 90% 54–69 ✓
Stetson @ Florida +23.5 149.1 98% 40–86 ✓
Missouri @ Wichita State -4.8 154.5 33% 72–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ St. John's +16.2 161.3 93% 66–89 ✓
UL Monroe @ Northwestern State +7.3 154.4 75% 92–83 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock +8.8 151.0 79% 83–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Western Kentucky +40.4 166.9 100% 69–96 ✓
Xavier @ Cincinnati +1.0 134.9 54% 77–69 ✗
Troy @ UAB +26.4 127.6 99% 55–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Illinois +1.5 153.5 55% 79–73 ✗
La Salle @ Army +19.4 127.9 96% 59–63 ✓
Binghamton @ Marist +15.9 136.6 93% 60–64 ✓
UCF @ Michigan +10.4 136.5 83% 58–80 ✓
Wyoming @ Oregon State +11.5 148.6 85% 76–73 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M +19.2 136.7 96% 68–81 ✓
Oklahoma @ TCU +4.9 132.7 67% 82–78 ✗
West Virginia @ Georgetown -4.8 143.4 33% 80–71 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego State +13.0 159.5 88% 60–65 ✓
Kentucky @ Georgia Tech +1.6 163.5 56% 62–79 ✓
Seattle U @ Long Beach State -0.6 134.7 48% 75–80 ✗
Western Michigan @ Michigan State +10.2 140.9 82% 61–79 ✓
Bellarmine @ Howard +4.2 151.2 65% 84–63 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ LSU +23.0 161.6 98% 55–86 ✓
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +9.7 164.3 81% 78–86 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.