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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–8 on winners spread MAE 11.0 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wisconsin @ Marquette +8.3 133.8 78% 65–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Georgia +5.9 145.6 70% 65–98 ✓
Valparaiso @ Purdue +22.4 142.4 98% 61–68 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International +13.2 143.9 88% 70–74 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan +1.2 139.9 54% 91–74 ✗
South Dakota State @ Bradley +10.5 123.9 83% 88–84 ✗
North Texas @ Mississippi State +4.7 131.0 67% 63–69 ✓
Troy @ Texas Tech +23.1 122.2 98% 46–80 ✓
Seton Hall @ Oregon -7.9 147.6 24% 70–83 ✗
North Dakota @ Minnesota +7.6 151.1 75% 67–76 ✓
South Alabama @ Auburn +13.2 152.2 89% 81–90 ✓
Idaho @ Sacramento State +18.1 135.8 95% 57–73 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Chattanooga +19.6 135.5 96% 72–79 ✓
Coppin State @ George Washington +11.4 153.5 85% 69–85 ✓
Furman @ Charleston +6.7 146.6 73% 81–57 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Arizona +10.7 147.3 84% 67–70 ✓
UIC @ Ball State +6.2 134.1 71% 66–68 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ VCU +13.1 137.0 88% 42–60 ✓
SMU @ Dayton -2.2 151.4 42% 66–64 ✓
North Florida @ High Point +18.8 143.5 96% 74–85 ✓
South Carolina State @ UNC Asheville +17.6 146.5 94% 56–77 ✓
Radford @ East Carolina +15.7 127.1 92% 50–63 ✓
Montana @ Southern Utah +6.1 139.3 71% 74–75 ✓
Omaha @ SIU Edwardsville +16.1 142.5 93% 65–63 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Green Bay -4.3 142.1 35% 93–91 ✓
Lamar @ Air Force +10.7 127.7 84% 44–59 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas State +17.3 144.5 94% 64–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas +19.5 133.5 96% 61–65 ✓
Iona @ Hofstra +11.8 132.7 86% 82–74 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Wright State -3.9 147.5 36% 47–71 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Providence +13.7 152.6 89% 67–79 ✓
Chicago State @ Northwestern +35.1 127.8 100% 66–111 ✓
Lipscomb @ Arkansas +21.2 144.3 97% 50–86 ✓
Samford @ Belmont +21.8 150.6 98% 96–83 ✗
South Carolina @ Houston +25.4 125.9 99% 67–77 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +3.1 158.9 61% 65–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.