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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.4
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UConn
@
USC
|
+7.1 | 152.4 | 74% | 61–58 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Liberty
|
+17.0 | 143.3 | 94% | 62–78 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Virginia Tech
|
+21.7 | 154.1 | 98% | 57–64 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Drake
|
+23.0 | 138.3 | 98% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
UCLA
|
+4.6 | 150.7 | 66% | 52–78 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
TCU
|
+23.3 | 135.3 | 98% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Southern Utah
|
+12.2 | 151.3 | 87% | 63–64 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Boston College
|
-2.6 | 148.5 | 41% | 90–70 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
California
|
+6.0 | 146.4 | 71% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Saint Mary's
|
+9.1 | 126.4 | 80% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Maryland
|
+16.7 | 134.9 | 94% | 57–90 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Stony Brook
|
+32.3 | 151.7 | 100% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Creighton
|
+13.3 | 138.8 | 89% | 58–93 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Tulsa
|
+4.2 | 140.6 | 65% | 64–79 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
California Baptist
|
+11.9 | 157.3 | 86% | 66–83 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Hartford
|
+12.1 | 138.6 | 86% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Charlotte
|
+2.1 | 164.8 | 57% | 76–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.