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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–11 on winners
spread MAE 15.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Virginia
@
Gonzaga
|
+1.9 | 158.9 | 57% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Michigan
|
+2.6 | 153.7 | 59% | 65–84 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
Fairfield
|
+7.7 | 141.7 | 76% | 66–61 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Iowa State
|
+6.6 | 140.8 | 73% | 71–68 | ✗ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Northern Illinois
|
+9.0 | 145.4 | 79% | 73–53 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Xavier
|
+21.8 | 147.7 | 98% | 48–79 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Alabama
|
-2.0 | 143.3 | 43% | 71–88 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Rhode Island
|
+5.0 | 151.2 | 68% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Quinnipiac
|
+5.9 | 147.3 | 70% | 66–48 | ✗ |
Houston Christian
@
SMU
|
+22.8 | 150.9 | 98% | 75–102 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Norfolk State
|
+17.3 | 148.0 | 94% | 80–66 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Memphis
|
+18.0 | 134.0 | 95% | 54–83 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+23.6 | 145.3 | 98% | 59–62 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+8.3 | 163.0 | 77% | 66–63 | ✗ |
San Francisco
@
Nevada
|
+19.2 | 131.2 | 96% | 85–60 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Wyoming
|
+16.3 | 136.5 | 93% | 83–94 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Arkansas
|
+28.1 | 146.8 | 99% | 60–72 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
UNLV
|
-14.3 | 150.9 | 10% | 77–73 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Baylor
|
-3.4 | 168.4 | 38% | 69–82 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
California Baptist
|
+27.0 | 151.7 | 99% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Oregon State
@
Washington State
|
+9.9 | 132.9 | 82% | 55–59 | ✓ |
|
Quinnipiac
@
Drexel
|
-5.9 | 147.3 | 30% | 58–70 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+29.2 | 126.3 | 100% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Little Rock
|
-2.1 | 139.3 | 43% | 80–75 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
NC State
|
+9.2 | 153.1 | 80% | 59–90 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+15.3 | 143.8 | 92% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.