Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -2400 UML +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +31 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -8.9 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -7.0 (+24.0) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -7.9 (+23.1) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -8.1 (+22.9) | 145.5 (+3.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.8 (+24.2) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 7-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#15) | 1.2 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#111) | 0.04 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#112) | -0.20 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#150) | 0.515 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 36.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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