Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -215 ILL +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -4.7 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.4 (+17.4) | 161.7 (-10.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.9 (+14.9) | 161.9 (-10.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.2 (+15.2) | 162.4 (-11.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#3) | 20.4 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#41) | 1.97 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#44) | 3.02 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#150) | 0.656 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 56.0% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 54.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.3% | 63.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 49.3% | 52.2% |
| FT Rate | 8.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 92.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 10.4% |
Game Analysis
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