Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -32.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +27 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -23.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -15.0 (+12.0) | 150.0 (+27.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -17.9 (+9.1) | 148.5 (+28.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -21.2 (+5.8) | 149.4 (+27.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -20.7 (+6.3) | 150.8 (+26.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | SMU 89 – 53 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 4-11 |
| Home | 6-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-2 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#47) | -5.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#120) | -0.50 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#123) | -0.68 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#185) | 0.458 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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