Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -150 PROV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.7 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.5 (+18.5) | 141.0 (+18.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.4 (+18.4) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.9 (+18.9) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.6 (+18.6) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#143) | 2.3 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#147) | 0.40 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#157) | 0.32 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#138) | 0.581 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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