Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +255 DAV -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -15.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -11.4 (+7.4) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -11.0 (+7.0) | 139.3 (+10.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -10.8 (+6.8) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -11.7 (+7.7) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#241) | 3.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#247) | -1.06 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#246) | -0.94 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.285 (#210) | 0.429 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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