Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -165 HART +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HART +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -6.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.5 (-7.5) | 140.3 (-13.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.1 (-6.1) | 133.8 (-6.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.1 (-7.1) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2020 | HART 67 – 54 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 4-8 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#248) | -8.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#165) | -0.93 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#178) | -1.22 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#179) | 0.495 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 13.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.2% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 57.5% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 9.4% |
Game Analysis
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