Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | ARK -1300 UTA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -30.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -22.3 (-10.3) | 154.2 (-22.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -18.9 (-6.9) | 151.3 (-19.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -22.2 (-10.2) | 149.1 (-17.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -23.9 (-11.9) | 150.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#2) | -0.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#83) | -0.39 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#80) | -0.39 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#47) | 0.535 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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