Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -23.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -7000 TNTC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +31 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -21.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -16.4 (+14.6) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -18.0 (+13.0) | 146.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -18.3 (+12.7) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 5-22 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-5 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#79) | -7.7 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#24) | -1.81 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#39) | -2.53 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#25) | 0.411 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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