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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valparaiso
@
UIC
|
+11.6 | 141.4 | 85% | 50–66 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Charleston Southern
|
+15.9 | 135.7 | 93% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
Providence
|
-5.5 | 154.9 | 31% | 62–63 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
Marquette
|
+14.1 | 144.0 | 90% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Duke
|
+11.0 | 149.7 | 84% | 75–69 | ✗ |
South Dakota
@
Nebraska
|
+24.2 | 141.5 | 99% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+39.5 | 163.8 | 100% | 49–88 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Kentucky
|
-2.5 | 149.4 | 41% | 65–62 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Alabama
|
+14.6 | 148.5 | 91% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Saint Mary's
|
+6.4 | 134.3 | 72% | 50–73 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Stanford
|
+2.0 | 134.5 | 57% | 79–63 | ✗ |
Texas
@
North Carolina
|
-5.3 | 128.7 | 31% | 69–67 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Ohio State
|
+24.4 | 139.7 | 99% | 44–77 | ✓ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
South Florida
|
+4.2 | 129.8 | 65% | 57–76 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
BYU
|
-3.6 | 158.8 | 37% | 68–74 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Penn State
|
+12.3 | 143.9 | 87% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Pacific
|
+7.8 | 151.9 | 76% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+2.1 | 154.5 | 58% | 95–78 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Clemson
|
+37.2 | 136.4 | 100% | 38–75 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Duquesne
|
-8.5 | 146.9 | 22% | 68–81 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.