Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | BYU -130 SJU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -3.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -1.2 (+7.2) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.0 (+8.0) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -1.8 (+7.8) | 151.7 (-9.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -1.9 (+7.9) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-7 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 10-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#170) | 0.3 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#133) | 1.97 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#138) | 2.74 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#79) | 0.669 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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