Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ -150 OKST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -14.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -7.7 (-15.7) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.7 (-12.7) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -7.9 (-15.9) | 146.6 (-14.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -8.5 (-16.5) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#10) | 9.4 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#83) | 2.62 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#78) | 3.79 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#101) | 0.708 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 48.5 | 46.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 50.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 30.7% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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