Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -140 IU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -2.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -0.5 (-16.5) | 137.0 (+5.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -2.0 (-14.0) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -1.6 (-17.6) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-12 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#34) | 5.2 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#68) | 0.55 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#48) | 0.85 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#12) | 0.654 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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