Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | PSU -175 VCU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -12.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -7.1 (-4.1) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -6.5 (-3.5) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -5.5 (-2.5) | 147.1 (-6.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | VCU 86 – 74 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#66) | 3.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#85) | 1.19 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#77) | 2.12 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#12) | 0.625 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 33.3% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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