Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | USF -750 FGCU +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USF -5.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -0.0 (+19.0) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.3 (+19.3) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 4-5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#215) | -0.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#228) | 0.37 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#228) | 0.49 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#146) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 56.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 62.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 32.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 2.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 29.7% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 47.5% | 8.0% |
Game Analysis
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