Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +270 EKU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +17 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -0.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -4.0 (-13.0) | 150.5 (+22.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -3.6 (-13.4) | 150.5 (+22.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 22-7 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 3-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#193) | 5.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#156) | 1.11 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#166) | 1.54 (#53) |
| RPI | — | 0.536 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 21.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 26.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 7.6% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 29.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.9% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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