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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–5 on winners
spread MAE 14.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
@
UNLV
|
-10.6 | 150.8 | 17% | 78–51 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Hofstra
|
+16.2 | 144.2 | 93% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Mercer
|
+18.2 | 171.3 | 95% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Xavier
|
+14.6 | 132.3 | 91% | 96–99 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
California
|
+9.0 | 149.0 | 79% | 49–60 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Minnesota
|
+17.6 | 161.0 | 95% | 64–67 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
LSU
|
+15.2 | 158.9 | 92% | 43–96 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SMU
|
+22.7 | 150.6 | 98% | 54–91 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Mississippi State
|
-1.2 | 135.9 | 46% | 51–68 | ✗ |
Kansas City
@
Kansas State
|
+1.6 | 142.7 | 56% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Wyoming
|
+10.1 | 129.7 | 82% | 76–74 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
Nevada
|
+23.7 | 126.6 | 98% | 58–70 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Indiana
|
+6.1 | 145.7 | 71% | 66–44 | ✗ |
USC
@
BYU
|
+4.6 | 153.0 | 66% | 79–53 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Purdue
|
+29.4 | 153.3 | 100% | 50–93 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Virginia
|
+19.4 | 138.1 | 96% | 51–76 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Washington
|
-11.4 | 130.4 | 15% | 57–42 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Wisconsin
|
+21.6 | 155.6 | 98% | 42–82 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Creighton
|
+13.6 | 133.7 | 89% | 67–94 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Hartford
|
-4.0 | 131.6 | 36% | 87–53 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
VMI
|
+3.5 | 139.4 | 62% | 71–84 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Georgetown
|
+17.8 | 139.5 | 95% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Western Kentucky
@
Louisville
|
+15.1 | 150.0 | 92% | 54–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.