Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MER +135 GAST -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MER -15.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -11.4 (+5.6) | 156.8 (-1.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -11.0 (+6.0) | 157.4 (-2.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#40) | 2.9 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#43) | 1.30 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#44) | 1.56 (#50) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 48.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 58.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 22.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 39.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 41.4% |
Game Analysis
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