Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | HOF -900 FDU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -16.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -5.9 (+9.1) | 140.6 (-9.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -5.8 (+9.2) | 139.4 (-8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -7.2 (+7.8) | 137.3 (-6.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#111) | -3.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#130) | -0.68 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#135) | -0.98 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#77) | 0.500 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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