Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -380 NICH +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +11 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -8.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-42.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.2 (+8.8) | 144.0 (-35.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -3.1 (+7.9) | 143.9 (-34.9) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-2 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#106) | 4.6 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#155) | 1.14 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#158) | 1.58 (#49) |
| RPI | — | 0.567 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 39.4% |
Game Analysis
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