Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -26.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HART +2500 VILL -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +34 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -3.5 (-30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.3 (-30.7) | 133.1 (+6.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.1 (-27.9) | 131.0 (+9.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.4 (-30.6) | 132.9 (+7.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-9 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 9-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#113) | 4.5 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#145) | 1.65 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#152) | 2.71 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#77) | 0.704 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.27 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 42.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 57.5% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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