Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -4500 OAK +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +43 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -27.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -15.9 (+27.1) | 148.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.3 (+27.7) | 145.9 (-2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -21.1 (+21.9) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.5 (+25.5) | 148.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | PUR 87 – 77 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#70) | -11.9 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#62) | -2.07 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#46) | -2.94 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#28) | 0.438 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 28.9% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 34.8% |
| TOV% | 26.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 81.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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