Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +700 UNC -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +27 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -10.7 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.3 (-17.7) | 142.6 (-13.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.5 (-18.5) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#213) | 2.3 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#219) | 0.49 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#218) | 0.75 (#84) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.0% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.9% | 6.7% |
Game Analysis
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