Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -200 WKU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +21 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -14.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.0 (+12.0) | 145.9 (-16.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.6 (+14.4) | 140.9 (-11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -8.4 (+12.6) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -9.1 (+11.9) | 147.2 (-18.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | LOU 94 – 83 WKU |
| Dec 18, 2021 | WKU 82 – 72 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#59) | 2.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#64) | 1.17 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#72) | 2.28 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#62) | 0.569 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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