Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | CREI -4500 OMA +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +27 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -13.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -9.5 (+17.5) | 133.8 (+27.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -12.5 (+14.5) | 137.9 (+23.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -9.1 (+17.9) | 133.5 (+27.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 1-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#147) | -3.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#111) | -0.61 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#112) | -1.24 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#130) | 0.444 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 4.50 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 6.0% | 27.6% |
| ORB% | 13.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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