Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -2000 EKU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -14.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+61.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.2 (-7.2) | 134.4 (+60.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.5 (-3.5) | 141.4 (+53.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.3 (-7.3) | 145.3 (+49.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.7 (-6.7) | 137.3 (+57.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 22-7 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-5 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#44) | 3.3 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#41) | 1.44 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#54) | 1.96 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#36) | 0.500 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 16.1% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 38.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 10.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.3% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 31.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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