Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -23.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -6000 SFPA +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -19.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.3 (+12.7) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -9.9 (+15.1) | 131.2 (-4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.9 (+10.1) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -12.9 (+12.1) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-1 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#45) | -1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#220) | 0.00 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#212) | -0.05 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.264 (#161) | 0.500 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 11.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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