Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | GTWN -700 NAVY +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -17.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -9.8 (-16.8) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -4.8 (-11.8) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -9.9 (-16.9) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#71) | -1.9 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#16) | 1.46 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#9) | 2.01 (#40) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.730 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 58.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 21.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 9.3% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 61.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 82.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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