Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | MSST -300 TXST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -0.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.2 (+19.2) | 135.0 (-16.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.1 (+19.1) | 137.8 (-18.8) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#182) | 8.0 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#213) | 1.77 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#216) | 2.50 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#120) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 54.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 60.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 15.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 51.1% |
Game Analysis
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