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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
3–4 on winners
spread MAE 15.1
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Florida
@
Virginia Tech
|
+12.8 | 150.3 | 88% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Radford
@
James Madison
|
+2.3 | 140.5 | 58% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Davidson
|
-8.3 | 148.8 | 22% | 78–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Providence
|
+3.9 | 148.5 | 64% | 79–58 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Seattle U
|
+16.3 | 137.3 | 93% | 76–65 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
App State
|
+27.3 | 158.8 | 99% | 78–76 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Boston College
|
+2.9 | 148.2 | 61% | 97–93 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.