Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -170 RAD +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -2.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -0.9 (+8.9) | 137.8 (-11.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -0.9 (+8.9) | 137.0 (-11.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.0 (+9.0) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | JMU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Dec 12, 2021 | JMU 79 – 70 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 8-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#211) | 2.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#212) | -0.61 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#212) | -0.61 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#71) | 0.562 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.0% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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