Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
| Money | APP +145 BGSU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -26.1 (-28.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -15.8 (-17.8) | 154.9 (-0.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -11.5 (-13.5) | 153.7 (+0.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -17.7 (-19.7) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#15) | -2.8 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#24) | -0.27 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#21) | -0.45 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#153) | 0.438 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 59.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 29.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 36.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.4% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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