Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DAV +280 TEX -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -9.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -4.7 (+2.7) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -5.2 (+3.2) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-2 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#126) | 9.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#107) | 0.59 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#97) | 1.04 (#61) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 57.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 54.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.9% | 63.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 40.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 29.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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