Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | IU -145 TEX +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +22 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -5.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-33.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -2.5 (-24.5) | 142.5 (-32.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -0.5 (-22.5) | 137.2 (-27.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -1.6 (-23.6) | 143.3 (-33.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -1.2 (-23.2) | 142.9 (-32.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 11-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#6) | 7.5 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#35) | 1.53 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#29) | 2.06 (#38) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.938 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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