Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | UNC +100 TEX -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -5.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -2.4 (+0.4) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -4.0 (+2.0) | 132.8 (+3.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -1.6 (-0.4) | 133.9 (+2.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -2.5 (+0.5) | 130.9 (+5.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#26) | 13.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#12) | 2.34 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#9) | 3.48 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#12) | 0.931 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 48.7 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 37.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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