Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -1300 NICH +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +23 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -5.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -2.2 (+20.8) | 136.0 (-13.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -1.5 (+21.5) | 138.7 (-15.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -1.7 (+21.3) | 139.6 (-16.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.6 (+21.4) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 2-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#157) | 4.2 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#140) | 0.65 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#162) | 0.86 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#153) | 0.465 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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