Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -230 MTST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -8.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -4.3 (-0.3) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -4.1 (-0.1) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -5.2 (-1.2) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#92) | 6.4 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#77) | 1.76 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#69) | 2.57 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#24) | 0.500 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 55.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 55.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 38.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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