Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -115 UNCG -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -8.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -5.0 (+18.0) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.5 (+17.5) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.4 (+17.4) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#184) | 4.1 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#200) | 2.21 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#198) | 3.38 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#155) | 0.875 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 27.8% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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