Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -120 SDST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -6.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.7 (-8.7) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -5.1 (-8.1) | 143.9 (-4.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -5.4 (-8.4) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2024 | ISU 82 – 65 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-22 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 9-3 |
| Home | 2-10 | 8-1 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#173) | 1.7 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#113) | -0.68 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#115) | -1.37 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#150) | 0.525 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 6.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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