Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | NIU -430 SIUE +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +20 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -9.3 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -4.6 (-24.6) | 141.1 (-15.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -3.4 (-23.4) | 139.4 (-13.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -4.4 (-24.4) | 141.4 (-15.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-16 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 7-12 |
| Home | 2-7 | 2-8 |
| Away | 1-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#215) | -4.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#222) | -1.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#219) | -1.93 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#104) | 0.479 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.0% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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